With global unemployment tipped to rise above 10% during 2009, and consumer confidence slumping across all developed and most developing markets, many people have been asking whether any industry will be spared.

Alcohol production has been touted as one group of industries which may be recession proof.
According to one of the most respected business research groups in the the world, “IBISWorld” analysis suggests otherwise.

IBIS world expects only Global Spirits Manufacturing to grow during 2009.

Global Spirits Manufacturing is expected to fare the best, as growth momentum from previous years pushes industry revenue up by 2.5% during 2009, compared to 12.8% growth in 2008. Consumers in the key growth market, China, are expected to be less affected than the global average. Chinese consumers will continue to spend more on spirits, resulting in an increase in Chinese Distilled Alcohol Manufacturing of another 11.9%. This will be the main driver of global industry revenue growth with consumers in developed markets expected to curtail their spending on spirits.

Global Wine Manufacturing relies heavily on international trade, with international trade accounting for 43.3% of industry revenue. Major importers include the United States, United Kingdom and Germany, all of which have been hit hard by the global downturn. IBISWorld estimates that Australian Wine Manufacturing will decline by around 1.7% in 2008-09 but will recover in 2009-10, growing by 2.4%.

The new global super brewer in Global Beer Manufacturing, Anheuser-Busch will find times tough in its first year of operation. Global Beer Manufacturing revenue is expected to fall by 3.6% during the year. While some consumers in developed markets will trade down from spirits towards beer, many more consumers will be trading down from their premium brew towards more standard offerings.

Marketing Tips: Tough times may drive some consumers to drink.
Clearly we are operating in a value driven market with consumers choosing cheaper beverages while other may choose to abstain all together.

TIP 1:
This would be a great time for a home brew company to take significant market share and build a national, even a global brand.

TIP 2:
Or for more expensive brands to re-invent larger take home packs that make it cheaper for their consumers. While still maintaining the credibility of their brand.
Heineken now have mini take home kegs. They’re not much cheaper than the original, but there is certainly opportunity for a smart operator to come up with a re-cycling option that could reduce cost.

Example:
Australian Micro brewer “U-Brew it” has taken Micro-Brewing experience to another level. They will allow you to brew your own beer in their brewery.(www.ubrewit.com.au)

Global alcohol manufacturing industries are expected to also suffer through this global downturn but with some good marketing, it doesn’t have to be that way.

Happy to hear your thoughts or ideas

Regards
Jeremy Hope